This chapter examines the various factors that have contributed to this remarkable turnaround in performance. To do this, it draws on an evaluation of PBL carried out by the ADB Independent Evaluation Department in 2018 (“the evaluation”),9
which aimed to assess PBL effectiveness by finding answers to three questions. (i) How responsive has PBL been to both country financing and policy reform needs? (ii) What development results have been achieved? (iii) How well has ADB designed, monitored, and measured policy reform outcomes? The rest of this chapter is structured around these three questions and the answers to them. Section 1 outlines trends in PBL use in the Asia and Pacific region over the evaluation period 2008–2017 as well as the types of PBL used by ADB and the policy reforms supported. It also covers ADB’s response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 and 2021, which has far exceeded ADB’s response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the food crisis of 2007–2008. ADB’s COVID response has drawn attention to the utility of PBL as a leading crisis response instrument.10
Section 2 considers trends in PBL performance, including the increased use of single-tranche loans and the shift in policy focus from reforming the financial sector to public sector management, which has had a major impact on PBL success rates in validated project completion reports. Section 3 looks in detail at PBL design issues, especially the shortcomings in monitoring and evaluation frameworks which have made it difficult to assess what PBL has contributed to, or what difference the completion of prior actions made to achieving development outcomes. Section 4 draws conclusions and ends with the evaluation’s recommendations for ADB.