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05 Apr 2023
Serbia: Staff Concluding Statement of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the 2023 Article IV Mission
The Serbian economy has shown resilience in the face of strong headwinds. Over the past year or so, sharply higher food and energy prices, shortfalls in domestic electricity production, regional drought conditions, weak trading partner growth and tightening global financial conditions have posed major challenges to the Serbian economy. Real GDP growth was 2.3 percent in 2022 and, for this year, growth is projected to be around 2 percent as tight macroeconomic policies and weak trading partner growth weigh on activity. But the 2022 fiscal outcome was stronger than expected, as were the current account balance and reserve outcomes. And, reflecting ongoing reforms, growth is expected to recover to 3 percent in 2024, and to return to potential of about 4 percent over the medium term.
